Iran: The Paper Tiger

In a recent post on his CNN blog, television commentator Fareed Zakaria suggests that the recent hysteria drummed up by Republicans such as Mitt Romney about Iran, along with concerns over its intentions in the Strait of Hormuz, may be exaggerated. Far from a strong enemy, the Iranian regime may be facing internal strife and economic weakness.

My Gut Reaction: It's about time someone had the guts to confront the panic-mongers.

Analysis: There are signs of conflict within the Iranian government. The recent threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz are a good example. Although the Vice President of Iran made the threat, a major figure in Iran's Republican Guards denied that there were any plans to do so. This contradiction suggests a rift between different government factions.

Furthermore, Zakaria argues that the current instability in Syria leaves Iran without its closes ally. Zakaria may be overstating this issue, particularly with an increasingly Shia-dominated Iraq next door. However, the weakening of the Syrian regime had definite negative repercussions for Iran, leaving it with less of a capability to threaten Israel, our main ally in the region.

Perhaps the best part of Zakaria's piece is when he debunks the idea that a nuclear Iran is an existential threat to the United States. This claim has always struck me as genuinely silly. If a nuclear terrorist bombed the United States, Iran would probably be destroyed nearly instantly, in all likelihood with little chance to really examine whether the country or its government had been involved. Indeed, a nuclear Iran might even stabilize the region in a way, creating a balance of power with the United States and Israel.

Unrest in Iran

By now, most readers of this blog will be aware that the results of the Iranian election have generated massive unrest in that country. The likelihood is that this unrest is in response to a genuine attempt to steal the Iranian election. As Juan Cole demonstrates in a posting to his blog, Ahmadinejad almost certainly lost the Iranian election when one combines the supporters of his opponents with undecided voters who supported reform and would almost certainly back his opponents.

One can only hope that the opposition's supporters win out. This is not out of some fallacious hope that an opposition victory will cause all Iranians to suddenly love Israel or convert to Christianity. Rather, one should support the Iranian opposition out of a principled support for democracy.

Last Minute War?

The following is a disturbing video I found on Wonkette featuring an interview with New Yorker reporter Seymour Hersh about the possibility of President Bush starting a war with Iran. Apparently, there is a real possibility that our fearless leader will launch strikes at the very end of his term if Sen. Obama is elected.



As mentioned above, I found this video on Wonkette, who in turn found it on the Informed Comment blog.